A Lighter View
Predicting the future
By K.E.H. Stagg

Jan. 29, 2009

The odds of Pennsylvania’s famous groundhog seeing his shadow next week are the same as predicting the outcome of Super Bowl XLIII: 50-50. (That’s better odds than playing the lottery which, if you’ve seen the commercials, is plugged by a mascot purporting to be “the second-most-famous groundhog in Pennsylvania”.) Punxatawney Phil, Pennsylvania’s most famous burrowing rodent, is bombarded by media spotlights on his big day, so when he comes out of his hole, he will definitely see his shadow—unless he’s blinded by the klieg lights, in which case he won’t see a thing.

In another similarity to predicting the winner of Super Bowl XLIII, Phil’s odds of garnering the favor of the state and the nation, for that matter, and being heralded as the new favorite, are equal to his odds of being terribly wrong and currying the wrath of the same people who would have praised his accuracy to the skies.

In yet another similarity to determining the outcome of this year’s Super Bowl, Phil is definitely going to disappoint someone, perhaps numerous someones. Steelers fans will be despondent if their team loses; Cardinals fans will mourn if their team doesn’t take home the glass football. Rabid Eagles fans will be irate if the Steelers win, although a few may root for a Pennsylvania-based team to win, in which case they will be irate if the Steelers lose.

Apart from gauging the value of commercials—and I admit to rarely thinking they’re worth the investment dollars spent—and chomping down a variety of cholesterol-laden snacks, I’m probably one of the few Pennsylvanians who doesn’t care as much about the outcome of Super Sunday as I do about the outcome of Groundhog Day.

I hate the cold, particularly when it’s accompanied by ice. Which means that if Phil doesn’t predict an early arrival of warmer temperatures, he’s going to have to burrow deep into his hole to avoid early extinction! Even more important is the accuracy of his foretelling of the weather future, which poses the same threat to his well-being as the aforementioned prediction.

It seems to me that Groundhog Day should be moved to the Saturday prior to Super Bowl, which would allows us to get two predictions for the price of one: Phil could tell us if winter’s over and who is going to win the Big Game. Or else have the Super Bowl teams each tied to a forecast for or against winter weather, and eliminate Groundhog Day altogether. Either way, we can’t lose!